No, the world population is not declining yet, but it is slowing down significantly and is projected to peak around the 2080s and then begin a gradual decline towards the end of the century, driven by falling fertility rates globally. Some countries are already experiencing population decline, but global growth is expected to continue for several more decades before contracting.
With fewer children being born, population growth in the U.S. has already slowed. The population is expected to begin shrinking later this century, according to U.S. Census Bureau projections.
Global fertility rates have been falling for decades and are reaching historically low levels. While the human population now exceeds 8 billion and may top 10 billion by 2050, the momentum of growth is dissipating because of declines in its most powerful driver—fertility.
But it looks like it will be a few decades at least before population collapse will begin posing a problem. A report from the United Nations says that while the rate of new people being born around the world is certainly slowing down, the global population is expected to continue growing for many more decades.
The population more than tripled in the last 75 years, but the UN expects it to grow by only about 1.9 billion between now and 2100 (from 8.2 billion to 10.2 billion). The population is expected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2084 and then decline to 10.2 billion through the end of the century.
While there is some uncertainty around the future size of the world's population, the estimated likelihood that it will peak within the current century is 80 per cent, with the peak likely to occur sometime between the mid-2060s and 2100.
The UN says Bulgaria is actually the world's fastest shrinking nation, with its current population of about 7 million people expected to dwindle to 5.4 million by 2050 and 3.9 million by the end of the century.
Demographers say it's not happening | CNN. Billionaire Elon Musk tweeted, not for the first time, that "population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming." Climate change is a serious problem facing the planet and experts say it's difficult to compare problems.
All figures are estimates. In 2024, the fertility rate in Taiwan was estimated to be at 1.11 children per woman, making it the lowest fertility rate worldwide. The fertility rate is the average number of children born per woman of child-bearing age in a country.
The projections in the report assume this with no upper limit, though at a slowing pace depending on circumstances in individual countries. By 2100, the report assumed life expectancy to be from 66 to 97 years, and by 2300 from 87 to 106 years, depending on the country.
The main factors behind this shift appear to be economic pressure, societal expectations placed on women to bear children, and environmental threats. These factors have collectively shaped a world in which having children no longer feels like a viable or safe option.
One major impact is the aging population. With fewer births, the proportion of older adults in the population increases, placing pressure on social services, healthcare, and pensions, as there are fewer working-age individuals.
The UN estimates that the world's population will top out at 10.3 billion by 2080 before it enters a slow descent, ending 100 million lower by 2100.
Possible positive effects. The effects of a declining population can be positive. The single best gauge of economic success is the growth of GDP per person, not total GDP. GDP per person (also known as GDP per capita or per capita GDP) is a rough proxy for average living standards.
Many Eastern European countries (e.g., Moldova, Poland, Hungary) show negative growth, reflecting a widespread demographic trend in the region. Larger economies such as Germany, Japan, China, and Italy are also shrinking, signaling that population decline is no longer limited to smaller or developing nations.
Of all live births in the United States during 2021-2023 (average), 25.3% were Hispanic, 50.5% were White, 13.9% were Black, 0.7% were American Indian/Alaska Native and 6.2% were Asian/Pacific Islander.
Ranked: Countries With the Fewest Children by Population Share. Hong Kong (12.6%), South Korea (12.9%), and Japan (14.0%) have the fewest children as a share of the population in 2025. Relatedly, they also have some of the highest shares of seniors.
Population growth has been slowing down over the past 50 years, and the average total fertility rate stands at 2.2. In about half of countries, it has fallen below 2.1, the threshold generally needed to maintain a steady population (see 'Declining fertility'). Small changes in these numbers can have strong effects.
Elon Musk has publicly stated he has Asperger's syndrome, a form of autism, which he disclosed during his 2021 appearance on Saturday Night Live. He described his traits as including taking things literally, struggling with social cues, and finding reward in intense focus, suggesting it aids his work. His comments sparked conversations about autism and how individuals, particularly high-profile ones, experience it.
Elon Musk's "1-Hour Rule" (often called the 5-Hour Rule) is about dedicating at least one focused hour each weekday (five hours a week) to deliberate learning, reading, or deep thinking, without distractions, to foster continuous growth and problem-solving, a practice also attributed to leaders like Bill Gates. This isn't about working harder but thinking deeper, allowing for crucial reflection amidst constant output, with Musk's own experience highlighting how focused, distraction-free time yields better results than hours of unfocused work.
According to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024, the global population is expected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion in 2084, before declining slightly to around 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
UK could be down to 10th place by 2050, France out of the top 10 and Italy out of the top 20 as they are overtaken by faster growing emerging economies like Mexico, Turkey and Vietnam respectively.
But that boom is now over, and it has been replaced by a trend of declining fertility and increased lifespans. Policy experiments have failed to reverse the aging of our population, but public policy can and should help society adapt to our new demographic reality.
Zero population growth by region
China is the second largest country in the world by population, with a population over 1.4 billion. China reached a population plateau (zero growth) in 2022.