“At the current rate of progression, the increase in Earth's long-term average temperature will reach 1.5
Average global temperatures could rise by 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit by 2060, according to a new report from the United Kingdom's Met Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.
Global temperature is projected to warm by about 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7° degrees Fahrenheit) by 2050 and 2-4 degrees Celsius (3.6-7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by 2100.
State-of-the-art climate models suggest that this will result in an increase of about 3.5oF in global temperatures over the next century. This would be a rate of climate change not seen on the planet for at least the last 10,000 years.
Lucas Zeppetello at Harvard University and his colleagues modelled a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios based on global population and economic growth by the end of the century. They found that global average temperature would rise between 2.1°C and 4.3°C by 2100.
2100: Either uninhabitable or beginning to repair
Over the coming two decades, extreme weather is set to disrupt society with increasingly severe bushfires, drought and storms. The good news is by the end of the century, living on Earth could actually be more pleasant than it is today.
The average annual temperatures experienced by people, the study says, are likely to rise about 7.5 degrees Celsius by 2070. “It's reasonable to conclude that if something has been reasonably stable for 6,000 years, we're not going to change it painlessly or quickly,” Kohler said.
But climate models tell us certain regions are likely to exceed those temperatures in the next 30-to-50 years. The most vulnerable areas include South Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Red Sea by around 2050; and Eastern China, parts of Southeast Asia, and Brazil by 2070.
The study, published Jan. 30 in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, provides new evidence that global warming is on track to reach 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages in the early 2030s, regardless of how much greenhouse gas emissions rise or fall in the coming decade.
Earth's temperature has risen by an average of 0.14° Fahrenheit (0.08° Celsius) per decade since 1880, or about 2° F in total. The rate of warming since 1981 is more than twice as fast: 0.32° F (0.18° C) per decade.
The world of 2099 will be unrecognisable from the world of today, but it can be predicted, says a leading visionary. Futuristic structures tower over the landscape. Giant, alien-looking trees light up with dazzling colours amid the hundreds of plant species that grow up their trunks.
2070 will be marked by increased acidification of oceans and slow but remorseless sea-level rise that will take hundreds if not thousands of years to reverse – a rise of more than half a metre this century will be the trajectory. “It's a very different world,” Thorne says.
The core is growing by around one millimetre per year, and at that rate, Earth won't have time to fully cool and solidify before the Sun reaches the end of its life. This will happen in around five billion years' time when it'll expand and potentially engulf the planet we live on.
Heatwaves will be more frequent and long-lasting, causing droughts, global food shortages, migration, and increased spread of infectious diseases. Moreover, as the polar ice will melt, sea levels will rise substantially, affecting a large number of coastline cities and as many as 275 million of their inhabitants.
The report warns that, by 2040, global temperatures are expected to rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, meaning that most people alive today will see the dramatic effects of climate change within their lifetime.
Is climate change getting better or worse? If greenhouse gas emissions are increasing — which they are, according to NPR — then technically, climate change is getting worse. But before you lose hope and fall victim to climate doom, it's important to remember that our situation is still very complex.
Overall, June-July-August temperatures are forecast to be warmer than the 1981-2010 long-term average during Summer 2023. Difference to the 30-year average could be close to +1.5°C, suggesting some heatwaves are possible.
Scientists say that surpassing 1.5 degrees C could trigger a cascade of tipping points, which would irreversibly alter the global climate system and further exacerbate warming.
Researchers say there's now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027. The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities and a likely El Niño weather pattern later this year.
Some parts of the world will be uninhabitable by 2050 due to climate change, according to NASA. NASA recently published a map of the world showing the regions that will become uninhabitable for humans by 2050.
People often point to a study published in 2010 that estimated that a wet-bulb temperature of 35 C – equal to 95 F at 100% humidity, or 115 F at 50% humidity – would be the upper limit of safety, beyond which the human body can no longer cool itself by evaporating sweat from the surface of the body to maintain a stable ...
By the year 3000, the warming range is 1.9°C to 5.6°C. While surface temperatures approach equilibrium relatively quickly, sea level continues to rise for many centuries.
Eventually humans will go extinct. At the most wildly optimistic estimate, our species will last perhaps another billion years but end when the expanding envelope of the sun swells outward and heats the planet to a Venus-like state. But a billion years is a long time.
Accordingly, between 57 and 55 million years ago, the mean annual air temperature at the equator where Colombia lies today was around 41 °C (105.8 F). In Arctic Siberia, the average summer temperature was 23 °C (73.4 F).