The Dow Jones Industrial Average As with the S&P Index, the DJIA tends to perform best around December and April and perform worst around September. Take a look at the two charts below. The first one used data from 1956 to 1982, while the second made use of data from 1983 to 2010.
NYSE Composite Seasonal Patterns
The above chart looks at 20 years of data. If we only look at the last 10 years (below), things change a little bit. Worst Months: January, February, June, August, and September remain weaker periods.
What month is historically the best month to sell stocks? The best month to sell stocks before a stock market decline is the end of July. Using 50 years of data, we determine that August has both positive and negative returns, and September is, in every decade, the month to avoid.
What is true is that October traditionally has been the most volatile month for stocks. According to research from LPL Financial, there are more 1% or larger swings in October in the S&P 500 than any other month in history dating back to 1950.
How stocks historically perform in December. The last month of the year tends to be a good one for stock investors. “December is historically a strong month for stocks, with only April and November better going back to 1950," says Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group.
“Since World War II, if the market is up in January, it has continued to rise in the remaining 11 months of the year more than 85% of the time and average gain is about 11.5 %,” said Sam Stovall, chief market strategist at CFRA. ” So the old saying, 'as goes January, so goes the year,' popularized by the Stock Trader's ...
share prices tend to fall over the summer months as big traders go on holiday and sell high-risk assets. ... the end of a financial quarter or year can also see stock markets become quite volatile, with the share price of some companies reversing direction.
The markets tend to have strong returns around the turn of the year, as well as during the summer months.
With all these factors taken into consideration, the best time of day to trade is 9:30 to 10:30 am. The stock market opens for trading at 9:15 AM and in the first 15 minutes, the market is still responding to the previous day's news with experienced traders waiting to make their move.
Stock markets tend to rally on Friday due to short covering by traders to avoid paying interest on a short position over the weekend, as well as on any optimism traders might have for market-positive news during the weekend.
With the turn of the year comes optimism and new cash infusions, making December and January months that have historically seen stocks rise. April also tends to be a strong month for stocks. If you're interested in buying the dip or trying to buy at the lowest price, September tends to be a down month.
The 10 am rule is an informal rule that suggests that a stock should not be bought or sold until after 10 am Eastern Time. The idea behind this rule is that the stock market opens at 9:30 am Eastern Time, and the first 30 minutes of trading tends to be volatile and unpredictable.
Some investment advisers say it's an idea worth considering, as the stock market has shown a strong tendency to perform sluggishly during the warmer months of the year. Historically, investment returns are much weaker from around May through October than during the other six months of the year.
Why The September Effect Could Exist. It is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year. There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children.
A recent analysis by Bespoke Investment Group shows that historically, the stock market tends to gain in the first half of the month of February and lose in the second half. On average, the gains tend to be slightly larger than the losses: Between 1985 and 2022, the S&P 500 ended the month of February up 0.37%.
July ranks as a top month for the S&P 500 over the past 10 years, with a 3.3% average gain, according to the Carson Group.
What is this? Thursdays and Fridays are the worst days to trade stocks during the week! Albeit the worst, both are still profitable because they benefit from the tailwind of the overnight edge: Night Strategies Trading (Overnight Trading Strategies)
While normal market hours end at 4 p.m. EST, stocks can and do continue to trade. Though participating in after-hours markets can benefit investors and traders who want to trade news like earnings releases that are announced after the close. However, the risks of engaging in after-hours trading can be significant.
The most common valuation metric is a price-earnings ratio (or P/E), which takes the price per share and divides it by earnings per share. The lower the number, the less the value. Generally for U.S. companies, a P/E below 15 is considered a good value and a P/E over 20 is considered a bad value.
Over the past 30 years, September and August have been the two worst months for the S&P 500, with a 0.4% drop in the former and a 0.2% decline in the latter.
When investing over a long period of time, SIP frequency, whether done on a day-to-day, weekly or monthly basis, has little impact on overall returns. Using historical data and analysing some numbers, we can see that sometimes a monthly SIP works well and sometimes a daily or weekly SIP works well.
It's a buying opportunity. Market downturns can be scary — but they also mean financial assets like stocks are on sale. "If you are financially able, down markets provide an excellent opportunity to buy into your existing or new investments at generally lower levels," Sowhangar says.
According to this hypothesis, investors sell off underperforming stocks in December to lock in a capital loss for the year, thereby reducing their tax bill, which causes a temporary dip in prices. In January, prices recover when buying picks up again.
We have a calendar effect known as the Santa Claus rally, which suggests that stock prices tend to rise during the final trading days of the year following Christmas and the first two days in January.
Another cause is the payment of year-end bonuses in January. Some of this bonus money is used to purchase stocks, driving up prices. The January effect does not always materialize; for example, small stocks underperformed large stocks in 1982, 1987, 1989 and 1990.