A recession or economic downturn can be an unsettling time for investors and their finances. Stock prices often fall just as the economy starts to slow and workers get anxious about potentially losing their jobs due to the slowdown. But recessions can actually be one of the best times to invest.
Bottom line. Investing during a recession can be a fraught experience because the market can be highly volatile and you'll likely try to avoid short-term losses. But in the process, you may end up hurting your long-term returns.
During the 11 recessions the US has endured since 1950, stocks have historically fallen an average 15% a year. This history may suggest that selling stocks before a recession arrives and buying them after it departs would be a smart strategy.
Cash, large-cap stocks and gold can be good investments during a recession. Stocks that tend to fluctuate with the economy and cryptocurrencies can be unstable during a recession.
Your biggest risk in a recession is the loss of your job, if you're still employed or semi-employed. If you need to tap your savings for living expenses, a cash account is your best bet. Stocks tend to suffer in a recession, and you don't want to have to sell stocks in a falling market.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Millionaires and billionaires are almost guaranteed to make a lot of money if they buy stocks/assets during a recession and sell them for a higher price at a later date. Plus, they can rinse and repeat the same strategy whenever there's a market crash.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months. When a recession is on the horizon, it's impossible to know how long it will last.
Single earners: Put aside 6 months or more
Recessions typically go hand in hand with higher unemployment, and finding a new job may not happen quickly. Catherine Valega, a CFP and wealth consultant at Green Bee Advisory in Winchester, Massachusetts, suggests keeping 12 to 24 months of expenses in cash.
The Australian economy entered a recession after GDP fell 0.3% in Q1 2020 and a whopping 7% in Q2 2020 - the steepest contraction in the nation's recorded history. Prior to this economic anomaly, the last time Australia endured a recession was 1990-1991.
Is It OK to Retire During a Recession? Retiring during a recession is certainly possible. If a client has diversified their income, saved enough in their retirement plan, trimmed costs, and maintained their investments, then retiring in a recession may still make sense.
It's normal for stock prices to go down during an economic downturn. The important thing is to hold on to your stocks and wait for the market to recover. Remember that recessions don't last forever. The economy will eventually recover and start growing again.
Fixed-Income: Companies that issue bonds or other fixed-income securities may be negatively impacted by inflation because rising inflation can lead to higher interest rates, which can reduce the value of existing bonds and make new bonds less attractive to investors.
Retail, restaurants, hotels and real estate are some of the businesses often hurt during a recession. While such services “may enhance our quality of life, they're not necessary to maintain our basic standard of living,” Kantenga says.
“90% of all millionaires become so through owning real estate.” This famous quote from Andrew Carnegie, one of the wealthiest entrepreneurs of all time, is just as relevant today as it was more than a century ago.
Defensive Industries
Historically, the industries considered to be the most defensive and better placed to fare reasonably during recessions are utilities, health care, and consumer staples.
A recession is a situation in which something's gone terribly wrong with the economy. You'll see businesses closing down. Workers will be losing their jobs. Unemployment will rise.
Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living. Often, this results in a recession and a return to low interest rates to stimulate growth.
As a result of the Great Recession, the United States alone lost more than 8.7 million jobs, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, doubling the unemployment rate. Further, U.S. households lost roughly $19 trillion in net worth as the stock market plunged, according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, streaming, discount store, and even fast food stocks all have a record of positive performance during recessions. Commodities like gold are yet another category of recession-proof stocks because when all else fails, gold stays up.
GOBankingRates consulted quite a few finance experts and asked them this question and they all said basically the same thing: You need three to six months' worth of living expenses in an easily accessible savings account. The exact amount of cash needed depends on one's income tier and cost of living.
Gold might outperform other investments during recessions, but in the long run, it doesn't usually deliver as many returns as higher-risk assets. So if you're looking to maximize your earnings and really be aggressive with your investment portfolio, gold may not be the right choice.