According to a recent research, the world's population could reach 8.5 billion by 2050 before declining to 7 billion by 2100.
Population growth could grind to a halt by 2050, before decreasing to as little as 6 billion humans on Earth in 2100, a new analysis of birth trends has revealed.
The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%.
Future projections
The most recent report from the United Nations Population Division issued in 2022 (see chart) projects that global population will peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline (the median line on the chart).
New York City continued to exhibit the largest numeric decline, losing 123,104 people from 2021 to 2022. But this was nearly 60% less than its 2020-2021 population loss of 305,465.
Earth's capacity
Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people.
Growth is beginning to slow, and experts predict the world's population will top out sometime in the 2080s at about 10.4 billion. That slowdown is partly the result of a shift toward fewer offspring—a phenomenon that is happening almost everywhere around the world, though at different rates.
Tech entrepreneur and multi-billionaire Elon Musk claims that underpopulation rather than overpopulation is the greatest threat that faces humanity, despite the current destruction of nature and the millions of people living in extreme poverty.
Declining populations can also create new problems, such as a shrinking workforce and greater stress on healthcare associated with an ageing society, as countries like Japan and South Korea are finding.
Indeed, according to current projections, China's population is likely to drop below 1 billion by 2080 and below 800 million by 2100. Those specific numbers will surely change; the downward shape of the curve almost certainly will not. India by contrast will keep growing quickly for a while.
China is forecast to lose almost half of its people by 2100, plunging from more than 1.4 billion to 771 million inhabitants. Russia, Germany, South Korea and Spain are all set to join this downward movement, with their populations beginning to decline by 2030.
In the International Journal of Forecasting study's median scenario, the global population is 11.1 billion in 2100, 10.4 billion in 2200 and 7.5 billion in 2300.
Russia's Population Decline Hits Record Rate
But even in the case of the average outlook, Russia's population is expected to dip below 146 million in the early parts of the 2021-2100 forecast period unless compensated by 900,000 migrants a year throughout that period.
Shrinking populations are usually part of a natural, inevitable process, and rather than focus excessively on concerns like labor shortages and pension support, we need to look at the brighter spots for our world.
While many assume population decline would inevitably harm the economy, researchers found that lower fertility rates would not only result in lower emissions by 2055, but a per capita income increase of 10 percent. Lower fertility rates also typically signal an increase in gender equality.
A reduction over time in a region's population can be caused by sudden adverse events such as outbursts of infectious disease, famine, and war or by long-term trends, for example, sub-replacement fertility, persistently low birth rates, high mortality rates, and continued emigration.
Japan's population has fallen for the 12th consecutive year, as deaths rise and the birth rate continues to sink, according to government data released Wednesday. The population stood at 124.49 million in 2022 – representing a decline of 556,000 from the previous year, figures show.
1. Marshall Islands. The country with the most dramatic population decline from 2011 — 2021 is the Marshall Islands. With an average growth rate below -2% per year, the country has lost around 20% of its population.
Perhaps one of the real drivers behind Musk's fear of population collapse is an unwillingness to imagine a world that looks very different from the one he grew up in.
Last August, Musk warned that "population collapse due to low birth rates is a much bigger risk to civilization than global warming." In a podcast, he also said that "people are living longer —that's the only reason why the population of Earth isn't plummeting."
At the global level, population decline is driven by low and falling fertility levels. In 2019, more than 40 per cent of the world population lived in countries that were at or below the replacement rate of 2.1 children per woman; in 2021, this share climbed to 60 per cent.
The report finds that by 2050, global fertility is expected to be 2.2 births per woman, down from 2.5 today. This rate is inching closer to the replacement rate of 2.1—the number of births per woman needed to maintain a population's size.
Before the pandemic, births had been steadily declining for many years. There were almost 600,000 fewer annual births in 2019 relative to 2007—a 13% reduction.
The global population drop is in motion. An economist believes the diminishing birth rate will have a detrimental impact on labor supply. The reason for our impending global population shortage is attributed to falling birth rates because of increased living standards.