The current world population of 7.6 billion is expected to reach 8.6 billion in 2030, 9.8 billion in 2050 and 11.2 billion in 2100, according to a new United Nations report being launched today.
The world's population is expected to increase by nearly 2 billion persons in the next 30 years, from the current 8 billion to 9.7 billion in 2050 and could peak at nearly 10.4 billion in the mid-2080s.
It is estimated that more than 70 years will be needed for the global population to double again to more than 10 billion by 2059. The growth in population is partly caused by declining levels of mortality and increased levels of life expectancy at birth.
Most experts agree that, if it continues at its current growth rate, like Nigeria, Africa's population will double by 2050. That would be 2.5bn people, meaning more than a quarter of the world's people would be in Africa.
The populations of more than half of Africa's 54 nations will double – or more – by 2050, the product of sustained high fertility and improving mortality rates.
The UN's demographic modeling reveals that China's population may drop to 1.313 billion by 2050 and fall below 800 million by 2100. The demographic shift is caused by the decreasing birth rate, coupled with a rapidly aging population.
Most Populous Countries: 2022 vs.
China currently holds the number one spot on this list. But the population of India is expected to surpass that of China's by later this year, eventually reaching a total of 1.67 billion in 2050.
The population of Australia will grow from 25.5 million in 2020 to 32.8 million in 2050, and 42.9 million in 2100.
Moreover, he suggests that human numbers have already passed the long-term capacity of the Earth to sustain us and that an optimum world population lies perhaps in the range of 2 to 3 billion.
If the world's population doubles, a lot of disasters would happen in the world that may be related to health, resources, and the environment. The increase in the world's population also increases the rate of pollution caused by human practices such as the burning of fossil fuels for energy and transportation.
Earth's capacity
Many scientists think Earth has a maximum carrying capacity of 9 billion to 10 billion people. [ How Do You Count 7 Billion People?]
The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%.
Repopulating the world after the apocalypse
However, to retain evolutionary potential – to remain genetically flexible and diverse – the IUCN criteria suggest we would need at least 500 effective individuals. That requires a population of 2,500 to 5,000.
Historic growth of world population
500 years BCE it was 100 million, and in the year 0 around 200 million people were estimated to live on Earth. After the Great Famine of 1315–17 and the Black Death in 1350, the world population was around 370 million people and around 1800 it reached 1 billion.
By 2050 , the world's population will exceed at least 9 billion and by 2050 the population of India will exceed that of China. By 2050, about 75% of the world population will be living in cities. Then there will be buildings touching the sky and cities will be settled from the ground up.
Extending the UN's probabilistic population models, the paper, published in the International Journal of Forecasting, found that our population size in 2300 will likely be between 2 and 26 billion people, with a median projection of 7.5 billion.
Overcrowding leads to further demand for limited resources and this, in turn, can lead to more conflict and warfare. As humans seek out more resources, they take over land that was once the habitat of other species leading to huge biodiversity loss.
Human population, now nearing 8 billion, cannot continue to grow indefinitely. There are limits to the life-sustaining resources earth can provide us. In other words, there is a carrying capacity for human life on our planet. Carrying capacity is the maximum number of a species an environment can support indefinitely.
research on minimum viable population
They created the “50/500” rule, which suggested that a minimum population size of 50 was necessary to combat inbreeding and a minimum of 500 individuals was needed to reduce genetic drift.
Given Australia's current rapid growth, including a high birth rate and high immigration, 26-30 million is now around the lowest point we can reasonably expect to stabilise within the bounds of practicable population policies.
The country is now predicted to reach a population of 30 million in 2032-33, later than previously expected due to reduced immigration levels caused by the pandemic pause. The last intergenerational report, released by Josh Frydenberg in 2021, predicted Australia would hit the 30 million milestone in 2030-31.
Australia's population density is low because most of the country's interior is desert (also known as the outback) and presents extremely difficult living conditions.
The Australia population is projected to reach 28.18 million in 2030 and increase further to 32.81 million in 2050 and 42.88 million by 2100. Australia accounts for 0.33 percent of the world population. However, its global share increased by 0.32% in 2009 and is projected to increase by 0.39% by 2100.
Countries with the largest percentage of total population over 65 years 2022. In 2022, Monaco was the country with the highest percentage of total population that was over the age of 65. Monaco has the oldest population of the world with 36 percent of Japanese being over 65.