Current outlook for Australia hot days will become hotter and more frequent. the time in drought will increase across southern Australia. snow depths will decline. extreme rainfall events will become more intense.
Australia is facing an "insurability crisis" with one in 25 homes on track to be effectively uninsurable by 2030, according to a Climate Council report.
5) with no action to reduce emissions, then average summer temperatures could rise by 1.4C – 2.7C by about 2050, with increases in most capital cities of about 2C. Sydney would be the most impacted area with an average 2.2C rise.
The warming will likely cause a number of key trends:
Accelerated sea level rise and worsening coastal erosion. Increased weather intensity including Category 6 cyclones. More frequent and extreme bushfires. A greater chance of extreme flood events.
The study, published in the journal Sustainability, found Tasmania could become recognised "as Australia's 'local refuge (lifeboat)' as conditions on the continental mainland may become less amenable to supporting large human populations in the future".
Despite only dealing with probabilities, scientists predict without a determined effort to reduce emissions, the globe will likely experience 4 degrees of warming by 2100. “That makes large parts of Australia and other continents uninhabitable,” Prof Flannery warns.
Australia could swing from three years of La Niña to hot and dry El Niño in 2023. Australia could swing from three years of above-average rainfall to one of the hottest, driest El Niño periods on record, as models show an increasing likelihood the climate driver may form in the Pacific in 2023.
Some parts of Australia – inland areas particularly, are expected to warm faster than along the coasts. Higher temperatures create a range of extreme weather and climate events: longer droughts in some areas of the continent, and in others, heavier rainstorms due to greater evaporation.
Australia's national climate projections at Climate change in Australia indicate that over coming decades Australia will experience: Further increase in temperatures, with more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days. Ongoing sea level rise. Further warming and acidification of the oceans around Australia.
Australia's economic recovery is leading the world. More Australians are in work than ever before and the unemployment rate is now forecast to reach 3¾ per cent in 2022, the lowest rate in close to 50 years.
Southern and eastern Australia are projected to experience harsher fire weather (high confidence). Tropical cyclones may occur less often, but become more intense (medium confidence). Projected changes will be superimposed on significant natural climate variability.
In 2050, Melbourne would be expected to reach 8.5 million while Sydney's population would have hit 8.3 million under the medium-growth model.
Australia's target—Australia will reduce emissions to 26–28 per cent on 2005 levels by 2030. This target represents a 50–52 per cent reduction in emissions per capita and a 64–65 per cent reduction in the emissions intensity of the economy between 2005 and 2030.
A paper published by the Anglia Ruskin University in the United Kingdom has identified five countries in geographical locations with “favourable starting conditions” that may allow them to be less touched by the effects of climate change: New Zealand, Iceland, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Ireland.
Australia's extreme climate makes it especially vulnerable to global warming. Much of its vast interior is semi-arid and, with temperatures 1.5°C above the long-term average, increasingly beset by wildfires and drought.
Australia in 2025 will be: strong, prosperous, healthy and secure and positioned to benefit all Australians in a rapidly changing world. We are told that Australia will need a diverse economy built on sustainable productivity growth, knowledge-based industries and high value goods and services.
Predicted changes
Australia is predicted to experience higher temperatures. As the average temperature increases, extreme heat days will become hotter and periods of extreme cold will not be as cold.
Earth has 11 years to cut emissions to avoid dire climate scenarios, a report says.
Since the beginning of the 20th century Australia has experienced an increase of nearly 1 °C in average annual temperatures. This rate of increase has accelerated even more over the last 50 years and is predicted to continue. The City of Sydney, for example, could have an increase of up to 4.5 °C by 2100.
Melbourne enjoys a temperate climate with plenty of sunshine. Most people find Melbourne's climate is agreeable all year round, with a cooler climate on average than Australia's other large coastal cities. Adelaide has a Mediterranean climate with warm, sunny weather for most of the year.
Australia, one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, has faced repeated onslaughts of droughts, bush fires, warmer seas, destruction of corals and floods, as global weather patterns change.
Australia was the only non-European nation in the survey to rate climate change as the greatest threat from the five threats listed, with 71% of respondents rating it their number one concern.
We Expect an Earnings Recession in 2023
Our base case for 2023 is that Australia is likely to experience an earnings recession even if we do not suffer an economic recession. The reality is that the starting point for earnings is at a historically very high level.
Australia has warmed, on average, by 1.47 ± 0.24 °C since national records began in 1910, with most warming occurring since 1950. Every decade since 1950 has been warmer than preceding decades.
In its latest climate driver update, the BoM said La Nina – the conditions which contribute to above-average rainfall on the east coast and in Australia's north – will finish up in the opening months of 2023, earlier than the usual autumn ending.