A majority of economists forecast a recession for the U.S. in 2023 – 58 percent, according to a survey from the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) released earlier this week on March 27.
Although it's possible, things would have to deteriorate very quickly in the economy, and the jobs market specifically, for a downturn to start this year. “We're running out of time for a 2023 recession,” Justin Wolfers, an economics professor at the University of Michigan, told CNN.
U.S. strategists expect a meaningful earnings recession of -16% for 2023 and a significant recovery in 2024.
Australians are being warned the country's economy is on a “knife-edge“ after the Reserve Bank of Australia's string of interest rate hikes, with a “consumer recession” predicted for 2023.
If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Australia may continue to be the lucky country and avoid a recession in 2023, but its global peers may not be so fortunate. Chief economist at Australian Retirement Trust Brian Parker says that Australia is relatively well placed to handle the economic turmoil.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Key Points. Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2023, followed by 1.7 per cent in 2024. Despite the bleak outlook, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is confident Australia will avoid a recession. The state of Australia's economy depends largely on the RBA's cash rate decisions.
Tim Simons, a money market economist at Jefferies, thinks that 2023 will see a “classic recession.” He predicts that the downturn will begin at the corporate level in the first half of 2023, leading to reduced headcounts. By mid-2023, he predicts that economic growth will slow and inflation will begin to dissipate.
Australia managed to avoid recession for more than 28 years, including through the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008. This represented the longest period of growth without a recession for a developed country since the System of National Accounts was established in 1953. Then, the global COVID-19 pandemic hit.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months.
We know that recessions vary in severity – just how bad will the 2024 recession be? We expect the 2024 recession will be a relatively mild one for US Industrial Production. However, before breathing a sigh of relief, understand that the recession will not be mild for every industry.
The Bottom Line
The Great Recession lasted from roughly 2007 to 2009 in the U.S., although the contagion spread around the world, affecting some economies longer. The root cause was excessive mortgage lending to borrowers who normally would not qualify for a home loan, which greatly increased risk to the lender.
Preparing for a recession comes down to using strong economic times to your benefit. Focus on limiting your spending, forming a budget, building an emergency fund and eliminating high-interest debts.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
The Australian financial system remains strong and well placed to support economic activity. Australian banks are well regulated, well capitalised, profitable and highly liquid; they are in a strong position to continue lending to domestic households and businesses.
Products that are essential for daily life, such as food, cleaning supplies, and personal hygiene products, may be in high demand during a recession as consumers try to cut costs by limiting non-essential purchases.
It's especially important to have savings during a recession, however, because economic uncertainty can create other financial concerns, such as layoffs. A surprise job loss can be stressful, but if you're cushioned with an emergency fund, it can be easier to pay for your expenses until you get a new position.
There are many factors that have driven Australia's strong period of growth since the last recession in 1991, including strong population growth, robust export growth and balanced growth across industries.
In their lifetimes, about one in five Australians will experience depression. Around the world, depression affects around 300 million people. Depression is the most commonly experienced mental health challenge for young people aged between 12-25 years old.