In June, Commsec chief economist Craig James told Canstar that Australia has a 33% chance of falling into recession in 2023, and that if it did, it would likely be a short-lived contraction. “The sharp rise in interest rates means that the chances of a recession have risen. Perhaps a one-in-three chance.
KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne is predicting an “extended shallow recession” environment for Australia in 2024 as the economy looks set to slow rapidly. KPMG chief economist Brendan Rynne is predicting an “extended shallow recession” environment for Australia in 2024 as the economy looks set to slow rapidly.
Experts put the odds of a recession by July 2024 at 59 percent, suggesting the U.S. economy has a near 3-in-5 chance of contracting. Those odds have fallen slightly from the prior survey period in March 2023, with economists penciling in an almost 2-in-3 chance (or 64 percent) of a downturn by the end of 2023.
What would a recession mean for Australia? If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Vanguard economists wrote in their mid-year outlook that they see a high probability of recession, and the “odds have risen that it could be delayed from 2023 to 2024.” JPMorgan Chase economists said in a note last week that there could be a “synchronized global downturn sometime in 2024.”
Description: The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.
Stocks will hit a record high by the end of 2024 as the bull market that began in October rages on, veteran market watcher says. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. After a brutal 2022, the stock market's bulls are on parade this year.
You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
If something's going to be painful, it's easier to bear if it's of short duration, at least in some contexts. Economic recessions generally follow that rule, but not always. A short, deep recession can leave a lot of scars, as the pandemic one did.
Economic growth is expected to slow this year
GDP growth is expected to slow to around 1¼ per cent over 2023, with GDP per capita declining over the year (Graph 5.4).
Recessions last 11 months on average. The last recession that Australia faced in the early 90s lasted from September 1990 to September 1991.
Australia has been in a lengthy recession before, but it was a long time ago. The first recession, since the development of the United Nations' System of National Accounts, was recorded 1974-75, the second in 1982-83 and the most recent recession occurred in 1991-1992.
Consumer staples, including toothpaste, soap, and shampoo, enjoy a steady demand for their products during recessions and other emergencies, such as pandemics. Discount stores often do incredibly well during recessions because their staple products are cheaper.
Industries affected most include retail, restaurants, travel/tourism, leisure/hospitality, service purveyors, real estate, & manufacturing/warehouse.
It's especially important to have savings during a recession, however, because economic uncertainty can create other financial concerns, such as layoffs. A surprise job loss can be stressful, but if you're cushioned with an emergency fund, it can be easier to pay for your expenses until you get a new position.
There are no laws limiting the amount of cash you can keep at home. This makes sense as many businesses, especially retail stores, keep large amounts of money with them merely as floating cash.
If you're young and still a while away from retirement, generally the best thing to do with your super before or during a recession is to leave it alone. If you've got your super in a balanced or growth fund (which the majority of Australians do), your super will already be diversified across a range of assets.
Deposits of up to $250,000 held in Australian banks, building societies or credit unions are guaranteed by the government. The Financial Claims Scheme protects money held by customers of local authorised deposit-taking institutions (ADIs). You can see the list of institutions that are covered here.
Stock Market Performance In 2023
The S&P 500's rise in 2023 reached almost 16% in mid-June. That surpassed full-year gains in 2010 (up 15.1%), 2011 (2.1%), 2014 (13.7%), 2015 (1.4%) and 2016 (12%). The gains have been concentrated, though.
The stock market is entering the second half of 2023 with positive momentum, which historically bodes well for returns for the rest of the year. The S&P 500 could be on track for its best annual performance since 2019.
By June 2024, it is projected that there is probability of 67.31 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is a decrease from the projection of the preceding month where the probability peaked at 70.85 percent.