Interest rates usually fall during a recession. Historically, the economy typically grows until interest rates are hiked to cool down price inflation and the soaring cost of living.
Key takeaways
A recession is when the economy experiences negative GDP growth and a slowdown in other areas. Interest rates typically fall once the economy is in a recession, as the Fed attempts to spur growth. Refinancing debt and making more significant purchases are ways to take advantage of lower interest rates.
In Australia, official interest rates were reduced to almost zero, and the RBA made significant purchases of Australian state and federal government bonds to support the economy. Some central banks slashed their official rates to below zero.
For example, you'll want to avoid becoming a co-signer on a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt. Workers considering quitting their jobs should prepare for a longer search if they decide to find a new one later.
But sometimes inflation pressures still prove persistent and require ever-higher rates to tame. The result — steadily more expensive loans — can force companies to cancel new ventures and cut jobs and consumers to reduce spending. It all adds up to a recipe for recession.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months.
The predictions made by the various analysts and banks provide insight into what the financial markets anticipate for interest rates over the next few years. Based on recent data, Trading Economics predicts a rise to 5% in 2023 before falling back down to 4.25% in 2024 and 3.25% in 2025.
Liquidity. Your biggest risk in a recession is the loss of your job, if you're still employed or semi-employed. If you need to tap your savings for living expenses, a cash account is your best bet. Stocks tend to suffer in a recession, and you don't want to have to sell stocks in a falling market.
If you're worried about keeping money in your bank account during a recession, you can rest assured that your money will likely be safe at a financial institution, and you won't need to take it out of your bank account.
Some stock market sectors, like health care and consumer staples, generally perform better than others in a recession. Healthy large cap stocks also tend to hold up relatively well during downturns. Investing in broad funds can help reduce recession risk through diversification.
The bank also predicted that rates would begin falling from late 2023. NAB: NAB's most recent forecast is for the cash rate to peak at its current level of 4.10%, and the bank expects the RBA to begin cutting rates in the second quarter of 2024, with a possible cash rate of 3.35% by midyear.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
Australians are being warned the country's economy is on a “knife-edge“ after the Reserve Bank of Australia's string of interest rate hikes, with a “consumer recession” predicted for 2023.
During a recession, the economy shrinks because of pullbacks in economic activity, especially consumer spending and business investment. Companies lay off workers and slow hiring, unemployment rises and wage growth stalls.
Do no withdraw cash. Despite the recent uncertainty, experts don't recommend withdrawing cash from your account. Keeping your money in financial institutions rather than in your home is safer, especially when the amount is insured. "It's not a time to pull your money out of the bank," Silver said.
Recessions typically go hand in hand with higher unemployment, and finding a new job may not happen quickly. Catherine Valega, a CFP and wealth consultant at Green Bee Advisory in Winchester, Massachusetts, suggests keeping 12 to 24 months of expenses in cash.
It's especially important to have savings during a recession, however, because economic uncertainty can create other financial concerns, such as layoffs. A surprise job loss can be stressful, but if you're cushioned with an emergency fund, it can be easier to pay for your expenses until you get a new position.
Keep Cash to a Minimum
Danielle Miura, CFP, the founder and owner of Spark Financials, suggested, “You should keep enough money on hand to get you a couple of gallons of gas, pay for a delivery tip, or to help in unfortunate events,” or around $100-$200 at a time.
Deposits up to $250,000 in savings accounts and term deposits with Australian banks are protected by the government, so if something were to happen to the bank (which is unlikely), your deposit would be safe. This is part of the Australian Government Guarantee Scheme.
Pro: Cash means liquidity
One of the biggest risks to individuals in a recession is the threat of job loss or unaffordable bills. With a solid cash account behind you, it's easier to navigate uncertainty more confidently knowing that you're financially prepared.
Since the start of 2022, the Fed has hiked rates 10 times to combat rising inflation. As of May 2023, the federal funds rate ranges from 5.00% to 5.25%. If this prediction is correct, it won't be surprising to see some of the best high-yield savings accounts offering rates exceeding 4%.
Fannie Mae.
30-year fixed rate mortgage will average 6.4% for Q2 2023, according to the May Housing Forecast.
Paid survey to raise rates one more time before 2024 cut | Bank rate. The Fed has pegged interest rates at 5-5.25 percent in 2023; The authorities then saw it drop to 4.25-4.5 percent by the end of 2024.