According to the definition of a "technical recession," we're still a while away from recording a recession this year (if at all).
Australia is moving closer towards a recession and its chances of experiencing one in the next year is sitting at around 50 per cent, according to economists.
The consensus of economists in a Bloomberg survey shows a 65% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 31% a year ago.
Australia is in the midst of a “retail recession” as inflation and higher interest rates erode the buying power of consumers, according to a report by Deloitte Access Economics.
By May 2024, it is projected that there is probability of 70.85 percent that the United States will fall into another economic recession. This is an increase from the projection of the preceding month where the probability peaked at 68.22 percent.
In a best-case scenario, the U.S. will likely see a 'soft landing' with low/slow growth across 2023 before picking up in 2024. However, a downside scenario is a real possibility and could see the U.S. enter a prolonged recession lasting well into 2024, as is currently forecast for the UK and Germany.
In general, a recession lasts anywhere from six to 18 months. For example, the Great Recession that started in December 2007 lasted 18 months. But the recession prompted by the pandemic in 2020 only lasted two months.
Australia may continue to be the lucky country and avoid a recession in 2023, but its global peers may not be so fortunate. Chief economist at Australian Retirement Trust Brian Parker says that Australia is relatively well placed to handle the economic turmoil.
If Australia enters a recession, many people will have a tough time, whether through job loss, home loss, or even just a struggle to pay the bills. Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
Should You Be Worried About a Recession? If the U.S. does slip into a recession sometime in the second half of 2023 or early 2024, there's no reason for investors to panic. First off, historically recessions don't last very long. The average duration of a U.S. recession since World War II is just 11.1 months.
The Bottom Line
The Great Recession lasted from roughly 2007 to 2009 in the U.S., although the contagion spread around the world, affecting some economies longer. The root cause was excessive mortgage lending to borrowers who normally would not qualify for a home loan, which greatly increased risk to the lender.
Preparing for a recession comes down to using strong economic times to your benefit. Focus on limiting your spending, forming a budget, building an emergency fund and eliminating high-interest debts.
In mid 2022, the panel assigned a 20% probability of recession in the next two years, but by February of this year that figure had grown to 26%. Most recently, the IMF downgraded growth forecasts for Australia from 1.9% in 2023 to a more timid 1.6%.
U.S. strategists expect a meaningful earnings recession of -16% for 2023 and a significant recovery in 2024. Strategists expect falling inflation could hurt margins and that investors are overly optimistic about the positive impact of AI.
The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.
Higher interest rates that often coincide with the early stages of a recession provide an advantage to savers, while lower interest rates moving out of a recession can benefit homebuyers. Investors may be able to find bargains on assets that have decreased in price during a recession.
A term deposit.
Deposits up to $250,000 in savings accounts and term deposits with Australian banks are protected by the government, so if something were to happen to the bank (which is unlikely), your deposit would be safe. This is part of the Australian Government Guarantee Scheme.
There are many factors that have driven Australia's strong period of growth since the last recession in 1991, including strong population growth, robust export growth and balanced growth across industries.
In a recession, interest rates will decrease, and a good loan deal will be more in reach. Some car manufacturers bring back special financing that can give you a remarkably low rate. During the recession, there are fewer car buyers as well.
We know that recessions vary in severity – just how bad will the 2024 recession be? We expect the 2024 recession will be a relatively mild one for US Industrial Production. However, before breathing a sigh of relief, understand that the recession will not be mild for every industry.
When things are looking bleak, consider holding on to your investments. Selling during market lows can be one of the worst things you can do for your portfolio — it locks in losses. When the market evens out down the road, rebalancing may be in order.
Generally, the industries known to fare better during recessions are those that supply the population with essentials we cannot live without that. They include utilities, health care, consumer staples, and, in some pundits' opinions, maybe even technology.
How Often Do Recessions Happen? Again, since 1857, a recession has occurred, on average, about every three-and-a-quarter years.