Prediction: Bonds are back “Bonds will be back in 2023 in a way we haven't seen in decades. In an otherwise challenging investment landscape for the year ahead, we see tremendous value in high-quality fixed-income and believe others will as well.
I-bonds help offset inflation
As of November 2022, you'll earn an interest rate of 6.89 percent. This rate will change again in May 2023. But before diving all in on I-bonds, speak with a financial adviser to understand future I-bond rate predictions and ensure it's a sound personal finance decision for you.
I Bond Cons
The initial rate is only guaranteed for the first six months of ownership. After that, the rate can fall, even to zero. One-year lockup. You can't get your money back at all the first year, so you shouldn't invest any funds you'll absolutely need anytime soon.
When we compare the historical 6-month composite rates against 12-month Treasuries at the time we see that the 6-month I bond rate is an average of 0.31% lower. At an initial rate of 6.89%, buying an I bond in October gets roughly 2.1% more compared to the 4.76% 12-month treasury rate (December 13, 2022).
I bonds have a 6.89% interest rate until April 2023. The interest rate will likely change in six months. If rates stay the same you could earn about $701 in interest in one year.
Normally, you're limited to purchasing $10,000 per person on electronic Series I bonds per year. However, the government allows those with a federal tax refund to invest up to $5,000 of that refund into paper I bonds. So most investors think their annual investment tops out at $15,000.
Inflation sucks, but there is one upside: It's still a great time to buy a government-backed I bond. Series I savings bonds are conservative, safe investments that rise and fall with inflation, and they're earning far more than the best high-yield savings account or certificate of deposit.
The main way is to go online using TreasuryDirect.gov, and the I bonds bought through this website are digital. There's also an entirely separate way to purchase paper I bonds.
I bonds are good short-term investments to fight inflation but do not offer the long-term growth potential that riskier assets like stocks do.
Use Your Tax Refund
Although each individual can only purchase $10,000 in I bonds each calendar year, there's a loophole: Those who use their federal income tax refunds can buy an additional $5,000, bringing the total to $15,000.
The biggest red flag for short-term investors: You can't redeem these bonds for a year after you purchase them, and you'll owe a penalty equal to three months' interest if you cash out any time over the first five years of owning the bond.
I bonds cannot be cashed for one year after purchase. If a bond is cashed in year two through five after purchase, the prior three months of interest are forfeited. There is no interest penalty for cashing in the bonds after five years.
Call risk is the likelihood that a bond's term will be cut short by the issuer if interest rates fall. Default risk is the chance that the issuer will be unable to meet its financial obligations. Inflation risk is the possibility that inflation will erode the value of a fixed-price bond issue.
The basics
The fixed rate of an I Bond will never change. Purchases through April 30, 2023, will have a fixed rate of 0.4%, which means their return will exceed official U.S. inflation by 0.4% until the I Bond is redeemed or matures in 30 years.
I bonds protect you from inflation because when inflation increases, the combined rate increases. Because inflation can go up or down, we can have deflation (the opposite of inflation). Deflation can bring the combined rate down below the fixed rate (as long as the fixed rate itself is not zero).
The composite rate for Series I Savings Bonds is a combination of a fixed rate, which applies for the 30-year life of the bond, and the semiannual inflation rate. The 6.89% composite rate for I bonds bought from November 2022 through April 2023 applies for the first six months after the issue date.
November 28, 2022. Much as I love I Bonds, the government's inflation-adjusted savings bonds, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), may be a better option today. They are providing an even better yield over inflation than I Bonds.
Serious investors should skip the I bond in favor of marketable Treasury debt with a higher yield.
We believe I bonds are a great supplement to your emergency fund, money market, CD, and traditional savings account. However, be careful not to use them as a total replacement to your core retirement savings.
How long will the money be locked in if you purchase an I bond? I bonds earn interest for 30 years, as long as you don't cash them in before then. You need to hold them for at least one year, and if you redeem them after less than five years, you forfeit the previous three months of interest.
Bonds, especially bonds from governments and major companies, also tend to be a safe investment. They can also offer much higher return than savings accounts. In exchange for the higher return, you give up flexibility because you cannot redeem bonds at any time.
Interest earned on I bonds is exempt from state and local taxation, but owners can also defer federal income tax on the accrued interest for up to 30 years.
I bonds have never been popular due to low interest and low inflation rates. However, inflation has increased, making these safe bonds more attractive. The cap at $10,000 and the annual interest of $689 might not be worth the hassle of owning and keeping up with a separate account.
Series I bonds are sold at face value and mature after 30 years. Interest is added monthly to the bond's value. Series HH bonds mature in 20 years. Bondholders receive monthly interest payments until they sell the bond or it reaches its maturity.
$10,000 limit: Up to $10,000 of I bonds can be purchased, per person (or entity), per year. A married couple can each purchase $10,000 per year ($20,000 per year total).