INTEREST RATES: CASH TARGET RATE "We think we are near the end of the RBA's tightening cycle and expect one further rate hike in Q1 23 that will take the cash rate to 3.35 per cent," Aird said. "From there we have the RBA on hold as much slower growth in demand is expected to see inflation come down in 2023.
"2023 is getting much bigger of a slowdown," she said. "Fixed (mortgage) rates will be rolling off. Interest rates are only getting higher. Electricity prices and other utility bills are going to be squeezing households."
When borrowers remortgage in the near future it is likely to be at a higher rate of interest. This can be seen in the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) expectations of the future path of the Bank Rate, which is expected to peak at 4.8% by the end of 2023.
ANZ and Westpac believe the cash rate will hit 3.85% in May 2023. NAB has hedged bets on a 3.60% peak by March 2023, while CommBank forecasts a more dovish approach, with another 25 bp rise in February bringing the terminal cash rate to a rest at 3.35%. Currently, the end-of-year cash rate sits at 3.10% for 2022.
Evangelou expects rates to average around 5.7% in 2023. That's significantly higher than the rates around 3.5% that buyers saw in the first months of 2022, but it's also a far cry from the rates that climbed above 7% last fall.
Will interest rates go up or down? An interest rate forecast by Trading Economics as of 15 December predicted the Fed Funds Rate would hit 5% in 2023, before falling back to 4.5% in 2024.
NAB: Early 2024
NAB is forecasting the cash rate will reach 3.60% by March 2023 and stay there for the remainder of the year, before dropping by 50 basis points to 3.10% by March 2024.
For Australia's interest rate prediction, the NAB expected RBA to hike the cash rate by 50bps to 3.60% in March 2023 and keep it unchanged until the end of 2023. RBA was forecast to cut the cash rate to 3.10% in March 2024 and to 2.85% in June.
After home financing costs nearly doubled in 2022, some relief is in sight for potential homebuyers in 2023. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. is expected to drop to 5.25% by the end of this year, according to a forecast by the financial services website Bankrate.
Most borrowers are attracted to the certainty a fixed-rate home-loan product offers, especially those who are budget-conscious. In fact, it is advisable for first-home buyers to take on a fixed-rate loan to be able to organize their budgets easily and to stay on top of their repayments.
The longer the fixed term, the higher the risk that average rates fall below yours and you pay more than you'd otherwise have to, you also lose some flexibility. Based on the current economic predictions for 2023/24 a 2 year fixed rate could be a good idea if you are able to lock in a good rate before the end of 2022.
Assuming these variable- and fixed-rate mortgages renew at median rates of 4.4 and 4.5 per cent in 2025–26, the central bank forecasts that mortgage holders will face an average monthly payment increase of 30 per cent upon renewal.
Fed officials do expect to begin lowering rates in 2024, but they anticipate bringing them down slowly.
“Our view that interest rates will be reduced from 4.5 per cent to three per cent by the end of 2024 envisages more cuts than either the consensus or the markets.”
How high could interest rates rise? There is no upper limit, and analysts suggest rates could reach 4.5 per cent next year. However, that peak is lower than predictions had suggested, when the Government was in some turmoil after its disastrous mini-Budget threw markets into chaos, reports the BBC.
The Fed's key benchmark borrowing rate is projected to rise another three-quarters of a percentage point in 2023, hitting a 17-year high of 5-5.25 percent from its current 4.25-4.5 percent level, according to the Fed's median projection from December.
Our other experts agree: The slowdown in home sales that beset the second half of 2022 will continue into 2023. Sharga believes the number of sales will continue to slow, likely hovering in the 4.5 million range, with new-home sales at around 600,000. Listings may no longer go at a lightning-fast pace, either.
For the first quarter of 2023: Fannie Mae forecasts the 30-year fixed mortgage averaging 6.5 percent. The Mortgage Bankers Association expects 6.2 percent. Freddie Mac anticipates rates averaging 6.6 percent.
In December 2023, the average rate on a five-year fix will be 4.48pc, just below the Bank Rate at 4.5pc, Capital Economics forecast. In January 2024, mortgage rates will fall again to 4.37pc, before the Bank Rate drops to 4.25pc the following month.
But the curve then predicts that rates will drop back sharply and will be around 3% by late 2025. That's also up on forecasts from a month ago – when rates were expected to be 2% in 2025 – but has gone up by much less than expectations for rates next year.
Interest Rates Will Go Up
The average rate on a 5-year fixed mortgage is forecast to rise by 0.3% this year, rising further to 1.2% next year and 2.1% in 2024.
The forecast for the housing market is expected to get gloomier next year before rebounding to 2022 levels in 2024. Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group forecasts single-family home sales to post 5.67 million in 2022 before dropping to 4.42 million in 2023 and then climbing to 5.25 million in 2024.
With the BOE base rate at 3.5% and the market now pricing in 2 year fixed mortgage rates to rise to around 5.6% by the middle of 2023, you should seriously consider fixing your mortgage now if you are worried about how high interest rates might go and whether you can keep up your mortgage repayments.
It depends on how much certainty you want! If you want to know exactly how much your monthly repayments are going to be for 10 years, then this might be the best option for you. However, we'd only recommend fixing your mortgage for 10 years if you know you're going to be staying in your property for at least this long.
Realtor.com expects mortgage rates to reach 7.1% by the end of 2023, dropping slightly from the projected 7.5% by the year-end. It projected mortgage rates to average 7.4% in 2023, up from the expected 5.5% in 2022.