Australia's population is projected to be around 37-38 million by 2050, with figures varying slightly by source, driven primarily by migration and increasing life expectancy, with Sydney and Melbourne expected to grow significantly, potentially reaching over 8 million residents each. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), the Property.com.au, and other demographic analyses point to substantial growth, with some forecasts suggesting figures close to 38 million, while earlier projections might have been lower.
Our annual net overseas migration is at unprecedented levels, more than four times Australia's twentieth century peacetime average of 62,000. Official government projections say Australia's population will reach almost 39 million by 2060. That's adding an extra 12 million people in less than 40 years.
Based on the evidence cited earlier, SPA believes Australia's population may already exceed a sustainable long-term level. We advocate for stabilisation below 30 million people because this is readily achievable and would minimise the further escalation of risks.
For the purpose of population projections the long-term mortality assumption is that life expectancy at birth will increase from the 1999-2001 level of 77.0 years for males and 82.4 years for females to 84.1 years for males and 87.6 years for females in 2050-2052.
Australia in 2050 will likely be hotter, with more extreme weather like intense heatwaves, bushfires, and floods, impacting over 1.5 million people in vulnerable coastal areas due to rising sea levels, while also experiencing significant population growth to nearly 38 million and deeper integration of technology in daily life, transforming cities, homes, and work. Major environmental challenges include severe threats to coral reefs from warming and acidifying oceans, increased bushfire risk, and changes to plant life, necessitating major adaptation in infrastructure and lifestyles.
Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average. As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)
Australia is unlikely to become entirely uninhabitable soon, but climate change is making large areas, especially in the north, extremely hot and potentially unlivable under higher warming scenarios (around 3°C), straining infrastructure, impacting agriculture, and displacing vulnerable populations, while coastal areas face rising sea levels and severe erosion, making parts of cities and towns uninsurable and at risk. The primary threats are extreme heatwaves, bushfires, droughts, floods, and sea-level rise, disproportionately affecting regional, Indigenous, and disadvantaged communities, forcing significant adaptation and threatening the nation's food security.
By 2050, Melbourne is projected to be Australia's biggest city, surpassing Sydney, with forecasts suggesting its population could reach around 8 to 9 million people, driven by significant migration and natural growth, while Sydney's growth is expected to be slower. This rapid expansion will place considerable strain on Melbourne's infrastructure, leading to increased congestion, housing demand, and cost of living pressures, prompting city planning initiatives like Plan Melbourne to manage the growth sustainably.
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in June 2021 there were 45,037 individuals in Australia aged 95-99 years old and 5,547 who were aged 100 or more.
By 2050, life expectancy is forecast to hit 82.4, with women predicted to live around five years longer than men.
No, Australia is not 90% white; while a large majority identify with European ancestry (around 76-80% in recent years), a significant and growing portion identifies as Asian, African, Middle Eastern, or Indigenous, making it a highly multicultural nation with diverse ethnic backgrounds, not overwhelmingly white. Recent census data shows European ancestry (English, Irish, etc.) makes up a large chunk, but Asian ancestries are also substantial, with over 17% Asian population and around 3.8% identifying as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, per the 2021 census data from Wikipedia.
Finance experts believe that Australia is well on its way to being cashless, and that the change could come as soon as 2030.
Is it cheaper to live in Australia or America? It depends on where you're comparing. Major U.S. cities like New York or San Francisco are typically more expensive than Sydney or Melbourne, but overall living costs—especially groceries and housing—can be higher in Australia due to import prices and taxes.
Pelin Akyol, research manager at the e61 Institute, a non-profit economic research centre, said Australia's declining fertility rate was driven by "three factors" — later parenthood, parents having fewer children, and a rising share of people without children.
Yes, projections from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and demographers consistently show Perth is forecast to overtake Brisbane in population, likely becoming Australia's third-largest city, with some forecasts pointing to the late 2020s (around 2028-2029) when both cities approach 3 million people, driven by higher growth rates in Perth, although Brisbane also shows strong growth.
For example, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) groups people into population age cohorts, and differentiates between '15–64', '65 years and over' and '85 years and over'. People over 65 are generally classified as 'older' for ABS purposes.
The rarest birthdays in Australia are February 29 (Leap Day), followed by public holidays like Christmas Day (Dec 25), Boxing Day (Dec 26), New Year's Day (Jan 1), and Australia Day (Jan 26), with December being the least common month overall for births, as obstetricians often avoid scheduling non-emergency C-sections or inductions on holidays.
There were 16,600 centenarians (people aged 100 years and over) in the UK in 2024, this has doubled from 8,300 in 2004. The number of male centenarians has increased faster than the number of female centenarians, having trebled between 2004 and 2024 (from 910 to 3,100).
There isn't one single "fastest-growing" city, as it depends on the metric (absolute numbers vs. percentage) and time frame, but Melbourne often leads in absolute population growth (largest number of new residents) for major cities, while Perth and regional areas like Mandurah (WA) and parts of Victoria (Surf Coast, Mitchell, Melton) show very high percentage growth, driven by migration, lifestyle, and affordability. For recent periods (2022-23), Melbourne, Sydney, Perth, and Brisbane added the most people, with Melbourne and Perth having the highest growth rates among capitals.
However, life expectancy at birth will be almost 90 by then. Australia will be bigger, older, denser and even more multicultural in 20 years time! Some 'Aussie Dreams' will have disappeared such as the 'quarter acre block' and along with it the Hills Hoist garden shed and enough space for a game of backyard cricket.
Cons:
Tasmania is the clear winner, with two in five Australians (41 per cent) choosing it, with other states falling well behind. Tasmania is especially preferred by those most worried about climate change and who expect the climate to be much warmer by 2050.
According to the Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI), published by the independent monitoring agency, the top three countries leading in climate protection are all Scandinavian: Denmark, Sweden, and Norway, while the United Kingdom is ranked fourth in climate protection.