Australia may continue to be
Australians are being warned the country's economy is on a “knife-edge“ after the Reserve Bank of Australia's string of interest rate hikes, with a “consumer recession” predicted for 2023.
Key Points. Australia's GDP is expected to grow by 1.6 per cent in 2023, followed by 1.7 per cent in 2024. Despite the bleak outlook, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is confident Australia will avoid a recession. The state of Australia's economy depends largely on the RBA's cash rate decisions.
The RBA and recession
While an increase in the population may boost GDP growth — in volume terms — based on the NAB's forecasts on Tuesday, Australians can expect a sizeable per capita recession in 2023, where output, and living standards, per person contract significantly.
Whole markets will tank or lose significant value and many businesses will likely go bankrupt. The Reserve Bank of Australia will also slash interest rates to begin an emergency economic stimulus, while the government may implement some emergency fiscal measures of its own.
In a best-case scenario, the U.S. will likely see a 'soft landing' with low/slow growth across 2023 before picking up in 2024. However, a downside scenario is a real possibility and could see the U.S. enter a prolonged recession lasting well into 2024, as is currently forecast for the UK and Germany.
Deposits up to $250,000 in savings accounts and term deposits with Australian banks are protected by the government, so if something were to happen to the bank (which is unlikely), your deposit would be safe.
Prices could fall further
If you buy in a recession, there is always the risk that prices could fall even further. That said, Australian property prices usually tend to rise in the long run, especially in capital cities. So if you're prepared to spend some time owning your property, you're likely to come out ahead.
KPMG's forecast is for Australia to experience a slowdown in economic activity. There are positive signs emerging in 2023 that the inflation surge which has been plaguing most countries around the world is starting to ease, with commodity prices retreating and supply chains returning to pre-pandemic operations.
The Australian financial system remains strong and well placed to support economic activity. Australian banks are well regulated, well capitalised, profitable and highly liquid; they are in a strong position to continue lending to domestic households and businesses.
Economic growth will continue to slow throughout 2023 under the impact of rising interest rates aimed at curbing inflation but Australia can avoid recession, according to CBA economic analysis released with the bank's half year results presentation.
Inflation is still the 'defining challenge' as Australia's economic activity slows.
Dwelling values around Australia fell throughout 2022, with rising interest rates partially to blame. However, new research indicates that house prices could start to rise again some time in 2023 - higher than previously forecast.
The threat of a U.S. recession remains alive in 2023. The consensus estimate on the probability of a meaningful downturn in the American economy in the next 12 months is at 65%, according to Goldman Sachs Research. But our own economic analysis rates that probability much lower, at 35%.
Inflation to keep decelerating this year as economy slows from high interest rates. Odds of a recession in 2023 hover at 64% amid bank failures and higher rates. Economists see jump in unemployment and major job losses over next 12 months.
If you have money in a checking, saving or other depository account, it is protected from financial downturns by the FDIC. Beyond that, investment products are more exposed to risk, but you can still take some steps to protect yourself.
Banking regulation has changed over the last 100 years to provide more protection to consumers. You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected. For instance, Silicon Valley Bank likely had billions of dollars in uninsured deposits at the time of its collapse.
Recessions over the last half a century have ranged from 18 months to just two months. Federal Reserve economists believe the next downturn may stick around for longer than usual.
House prices in Australia are extremely high compared to income, relative to other countries. The market is propped up by rules that provide tax deductions for property investment, and by repeated state government bonuses for first home buyers. Furthermore, the supply of new homes is hard to generate.
Australia's housing prices have experienced the largest decline in a calendar year since the global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008, when home values fell 6.4 per cent nationally.
There are no laws limiting the amount of cash you can keep at home. This makes sense as many businesses, especially retail stores, keep large amounts of money with them merely as floating cash.
In addition, during recessions, people with access to cash are in a better position to take advantage of investment opportunities that can significantly improve their finances long-term.
Mr Boey says while there's minimal risk of any Australian banks collapsing, savings up to a certain point are protected. Deposits up to $250,000 are protected by a government-backed safety net called the Financial Claims Scheme.