No, Australia officially ended a "per capita recession" in late 2024 as GDP growth finally outpaced population growth, showing a modest economic rebound driven by household spending, stronger exports, and government support, although a broader global recession was still a risk for major economies like the US. While some signs of economic cooling, like low consumer sentiment, were present, the economy avoided a full technical recession by the year's end, according to data from late 2024 and early 2025.
J.P. Morgan Research has reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%. However, a period of sub-par growth could lie ahead, especially as the U.S. tariff shock could still be material.
GDP Per Capita
Bloomberg reported the March 2024 quarter result was the deepest downturn in GDP-per-person terms — outside the COVID era — since 1991. Many commentators had considered Australia to be in a 'per capita' recession.
While many experts warned of a recession for Australia in 2025 due to high inflation and interest rates, the economy largely avoided a major downturn, showing resilience with positive, albeit slower, GDP growth, low unemployment, and some signs of recovery by late 2025, though risks remained, particularly concerning household spending and global trade tensions. Forecasts from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and economists indicated a "slow grind" or modest improvement rather than a sharp crash, with some analysts predicting a potential for recession into 2026, but overall, Australia navigated the challenges better than initially feared.
“The U.S. economy is clearly not in a recession nor is it likely to head into a recession in the home stretch of 2024,” Kleinhenz said. “Instead, it appears that the economy is on the cusp of nailing a long-awaited soft landing with a simultaneous cooling of growth and inflation.”
When the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) increases by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to its low during the previous 12 months, it's marked as the beginning of a recession. Historically, this has been one of the most accurate recession indicators.
It can help reduce wealth inequality. Cash-rich households and savers. If people hold cash or low-risk assets, they can buy shares, property, or businesses at discounted prices. Recessions often push asset prices down, creating buying opportunities.
Yes, Australians are facing significant financial struggles in 2025, with high cost of living, rising debt, and widespread financial insecurity, particularly impacting young people, renters, and lower-income families, leading many to feel worse off and struggle to meet basic expenses despite some economic indicators improving. Key issues include affordability of essentials (food, housing), increased use of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL), and a general sentiment that financial health isn't improving, say reports from Monash University, SBS News, The Salvation Army Australia, The West Australian, Agile Market Intelligence, ASIC, The Guardian, Broker Daily, and Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Cash is king during a recession. A recent study from Vanguard found that even a small emergency fund — just $2,000 — can boost financial wellbeing by more than 20%. That said, if you can save even more you should. Most experts (and I agree) recommend having three to six months' worth of expenses on hand.
During a recession, a country's gross domestic product (GDP) may decline, and household spending may be seen to slow down. Businesses may slow down, causing incomes to stagnate, investment to drop, and people to lose jobs. Unemployment can rise, and retail sales and manufacturing can experience a decline.
Even when the economy takes a downturn, certain industries will typically need workers, including:
Yes, Australia is facing significant financial challenges, with many households struggling with the cost-of-living crisis, high interest rates, slowing economic growth, and rising government debt, leading to declining living standards despite the economy not being in official recession. Key issues include soaring housing and essential costs, stagnant real wages, weakening productivity, and increasing state and federal debt levels, creating a "gentle decline" where many feel financially squeezed.
If the United States were to enter a recession, the funds you have saved at a bank aren't at risk of becoming lost or inaccessible the same way they were during the Great Depression. There are many more laws and pieces of legislation that protect your money than in the 1930s.
Most economists don't expect the U.S. economy will enter a recession in 2026. J.P. Morgan (JPM +0.42%) Global Research projects the likelihood of a recession this year at only 35%. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's probability of a recession by November 2026 based on Treasury spreads is even lower.
You just don't know it yet. Elon Musk believes the global economy is already in a recession, and things are about to get a lot worse. He has recently made moves to curb working from home at Tesla, and has announced plans to layoff 10% of Tesla's salaried employees.
Here's a look at some of those investments, along with some others that could mitigate the effects of a recession:
Investing $1,000 a month for 30 years means you contribute $360,000 total, but with compounding returns, the final amount varies significantly by average annual return, potentially growing to over $1 million at 8% and reaching around $2 million or more at a 10% average return, illustrating the power of long-term, consistent investing.
During a recession, finances can be unpredictable, so it's important to spend wisely, avoid debt, continue saving and avoid making panic-driven decisions. With news of a possible recession coming, now is a good time to revisit your financial habits.
So if you're wondering where your money actually belongs when the economy slows, here's where to focus -- and why.
Lower prices — A recession often hits after a long period of sky-high consumer prices. At the onset of a recession, these prices suddenly drop, balancing out previous long inflationary costs. As a result, people on fixed incomes can benefit from new, lower prices, including real estate sales.
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Yes, Indigenous Australians can access specialized home loan programs, like those from Indigenous Business Australia (IBA), that often feature lower introductory interest rates, lower deposit requirements, and flexible terms to overcome barriers to mainstream lending, making homeownership more accessible, though claims of zero-interest loans are false. These subsidized rates and tailored conditions, like reduced Lender's Mortgage Insurance (LMI), are designed to support First Nations people, but eligibility and specific rates depend on income and circumstances.
Consumer staples
The Most Important Recession Indicators You Need to Watch Right Now:
His administration continued the banking bailout and auto industry rescue begun by the previous administration and immediately enacted an $800 billion stimulus program, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA), which included a blend of additional spending and tax cuts.